Methodology
Every number on Wall Street Friend is derived from historical data, not opinion. This page explains exactly how the earnings-date predictions and the price-movement statistics are calculated, and where they fall short. We would rather be precise and honest than impressive.
Earnings-date predictions
Inputs. We look only at a company's own history of past quarterly reporting dates. From those dates we measure the intervals between consecutive reports (typically clustered near 90 days) and project the most likely next report date from that cadence.
Confidence (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW). Confidence reflects how consistent a company's recent reporting intervals are. We compute the standard deviation of the most recent intervals:
- HIGH — intervals are tightly clustered (low standard deviation) across several recent quarters.
- MEDIUM — some variation, but the cadence is still reasonably regular.
- LOW — intervals are irregular enough that the estimate is rough.
Limitations. A predicted date is an estimate, not a confirmation. Companies move their report dates, and our cadence model cannot see that ahead of time. Always confirm the actual date from the company's investor-relations page or an SEC 8-K filing before acting on it.
Post-earnings price movement
Post-earnings movement is the percent change in the stock's closing price from the session before the earnings release to the session after — i.e. close-to-close across the report. Pre-market reports compare the prior close to the report-day close; post-market reports compare the report-day close to the next day's close.
Aggregate statistics
- Average absolute movement is the mean of the absolute value of the post-earnings movement across all recorded earnings events for a stock. Using the absolute value means up-moves and down-moves both count toward "how much this stock typically moves," so they don't cancel out.
- Positive % is the share of recorded earnings events with a non-negative move (i.e. the close-to-close change was zero or greater).
Honest limitations
- Historical results do not predict future moves. A stock that has been calm can gap violently next quarter.
- Source data can contain gaps, mislabeled report timing (pre- vs. post-market), or stock-split artifacts; extreme readings may be data errors rather than real moves.
- Coverage spans 4245+ reporting stocks, but not every ticker has a complete, clean history.
- None of this is investment advice. All trading features are paper trading only.
More about the product on the about page, or contact us with corrections.